City Crime Trajectories
We analyzed multi-year crime trends for 9,739 cities and classified each one into a trajectory type. Is your city getting safer, more dangerous, or bouncing around unpredictably?
๐
158
Improving
Crime rates declining consistently over multiple years
๐
302
Worsening
Crime rates increasing consistently over multiple years
๐
3,065
Volatile
Crime rates swinging up and down unpredictably
๐ก๏ธ
3,303
Stable & Safe
Consistently low crime rates (under 200 violent per 100K)
โ ๏ธ
392
Stable & Dangerous
Consistently high crime rates that aren't changing
Trajectory Distribution
๐ Improving Cities (Largest)
| City | Pop. | Violent Rate | YoY Change |
|---|---|---|---|
| Dallas, TX | 1,321,502 | 658.2 | -2.0% |
| Louisville Metro, KY | 676,843 | 707.4 | -7.6% |
| Milwaukee, WI | 560,416 | 1430.9 | -0.5% |
| Atlanta, GA | 500,212 | 707.3 | -15.9% |
| Omaha, NE | 480,235 | 369.0 | โ |
| Stockton, CA | 319,069 | 1145.8 | -0.7% |
| Durham, NC | 300,208 | 619.2 | -2.7% |
| Lincoln, NE | 295,808 | 347.9 | -4.9% |
| Anchorage, AK | 286,958 | 1014.8 | -4.4% |
| St. Louis, MO | 277,294 | 1367.1 | -5.4% |
๐ Worsening Cities (Largest)
| City | Pop. | Violent Rate | YoY Change |
|---|---|---|---|
| Mesa, AZ | 513,585 | 482.7 | +10.9% |
| Glendale, CA | 184,180 | 287.2 | +26.5% |
| Corona, CA | 161,174 | 249.4 | +9.4% |
| Orange, CA | 137,970 | 226.1 | +2.8% |
| Torrance, CA | 136,899 | 311.2 | +17.4% |
| Provo, UT | 112,763 | 206.6 | +18.3% |
| Woodbridge Township, NJ | 103,449 | 237.8 | +26.2% |
| El Monte, CA | 102,088 | 423.2 | +0.4% |
| Burbank, CA | 101,377 | 390.6 | +6.0% |
| Greece Town, NY | 93,943 | 141.6 | +0.9% |
๐ Volatile Cities (Largest)
| City | Pop. | Violent Rate | YoY Change |
|---|---|---|---|
| New York, NY | 8,299,271 | 671.0 | +0.4% |
| Las Vegas Metropolitan Police Department, NV | 1,716,565 | 429.8 | -8.6% |
| Phoenix, AZ | 1,662,809 | 799.6 | +1.9% |
| San Antonio, TX | 1,514,458 | 594.1 | -14.4% |
| San Diego, CA | 1,389,024 | 412.2 | -1.3% |
| Charlotte-Mecklenburg, NC | 1,003,130 | 733.2 | +1.0% |
| Fort Worth, TX | 997,476 | 458.4 | -6.4% |
| Honolulu, HI | 992,973 | 185.2 | -0.5% |
| Austin, TX | 984,613 | 466.9 | -6.5% |
| Columbus, OH | 915,447 | 434.9 | +12.9% |
๐ก๏ธ Stable & Safe Cities (Largest)
| City | Pop. | Violent Rate | YoY Change |
|---|---|---|---|
| Virginia Beach, VA | 455,155 | 92.3 | -3.2% |
| Irvine, CA | 316,764 | 84.0 | -3.1% |
| Chandler, AZ | 281,117 | 133.4 | -23.1% |
| Gilbert, AZ | 277,527 | 132.2 | +12.9% |
| Frisco, TX | 232,961 | 100.9 | +17.6% |
| McKinney, TX | 219,132 | 117.3 | +11.4% |
| Worcester, MA | 212,425 | 16.5 | โ |
| Overland Park, KS | 196,875 | 184.4 | -9.3% |
| Cary, NC | 181,793 | 71.0 | -31.7% |
| Surprise, AZ | 163,202 | 109.1 | +8.7% |
โ ๏ธ Stable & Dangerous Cities (Largest)
| City | Pop. | Violent Rate | YoY Change |
|---|---|---|---|
| Los Angeles, CA | 3,786,018 | 820.0 | -1.7% |
| Houston, TX | 2,319,160 | 1148.2 | +5.2% |
| San Jose, CA | 956,840 | 606.8 | โ |
| Indianapolis, IN | 890,685 | 877.9 | -14.8% |
| Denver, CO | 722,031 | 993.0 | -2.8% |
| Washington, DC | 702,250 | 925.9 | -11.6% |
| Metropolitan Nashville Police Department, TN | 698,987 | 1124.1 | -0.4% |
| Boston, MA | 659,049 | 627.9 | +0.2% |
| Detroit, MI | 651,171 | 1781.3 | -13.2% |
| Memphis, TN | 613,207 | 2501.3 | -4.2% |
How We Classify Trajectories
Our trajectory classification uses 3-5 years of FBI Uniform Crime Report data for each city. We analyze year-over-year changes in violent crime rates to determine the overall direction:
- Improving: Violent crime rate has declined every year in the available data period, but the city is still above 200 per 100K.
- Worsening: Violent crime rate has increased every year.
- Stable & Safe: All years show declining rates AND the latest rate is under 200 per 100K โ consistently low.
- Stable & Dangerous: All years show increasing rates AND the latest rate exceeds 500 per 100K โ stuck in a high-crime pattern.
- Volatile: Crime rates bounce up and down with no clear trend โ the most common pattern, reflecting how crime responds to many variables.
Volatility is the most common trajectory (3,065 cities) because crime rates are influenced by many factors: policing changes, economic shifts, drug markets, and even weather. A single year's spike or drop often reverses the next year.