Crime Clearance Rates: How Many Crimes Actually Get Solved?

What Does "Cleared" Mean?

Before diving into the numbers, it's important to understand what the FBI means by "cleared." A crime is considered cleared in two ways:

1. Cleared by arrest: At least one person is arrested, charged, and turned over to the court for prosecution. This is the most common type — but an arrest doesn't mean conviction. Many arrested individuals are never convicted.
2. Cleared by exceptional means: The agency identified the offender, has enough evidence to make an arrest, knows the offender's location, but cannot make an arrest due to circumstances outside their control. Examples include: the offender died (including suicide), the victim refused to cooperate, extradition was denied, or prosecution was declined.

This means that a "50% clearance rate" for murder does not mean 50% of murders result in conviction. The actual conviction rate for reported murders is estimated at 30–35%. For property crime, conviction rates are in the single digits.

Clearance Rates by Crime Type

The estimated "unsolved" column is staggering. In a single year, approximately 8,129 murders go unsolved. Over 89,269 rapes result in no arrest. And the vast majority of property crime — hundreds of thousands of burglaries, thefts, and car thefts — go completely uninvestigated.

The Murder Clearance Crisis: From 90% to 50%

The decline in murder clearance rates is one of the most troubling trends in American policing:

What changed? Several factors drove the decline:

1. The nature of murder changed. In the 1960s, most murders involved family members or close acquaintances — cases where the suspect was obvious. Today, a larger share of murders involve acquaintances in drug markets, gang conflicts, and street disputes where witnesses are reluctant to cooperate.
2. Witness intimidation. In high-violence communities, cooperating with police can be dangerous. The "no snitching" culture is not a preference — it's often a survival strategy where witnesses fear retaliation.
3. Community-police distrust. Decades of aggressive policing, racial profiling, and high-profile police killings have eroded trust. When communities don't trust police, they don't provide tips, don't identify suspects, and don't testify.
4. Staffing and caseloads. Many homicide units are understaffed. The recommended caseload is 4–6 active cases per detective; many carry 15+. Overworked detectives cannot give each case adequate attention.
5. The "CSI effect" irony. Juries now expect DNA and forensic evidence in every case. But the reality is that physical evidence is available in only a minority of cases, and DNA backlogs can stretch months or years.

City-Level Variation

Clearance rates vary dramatically by city. Some departments solve 70%+ of murders; others solve less than 30%:

The most dangerous cities tend to also have the lowest clearance rates — creating a vicious cycle. Low clearance rates reduce deterrence, encouraging more violence. More violence overwhelms investigators, further reducing clearance rates.

Property Crime: The Uninvestigated Majority

While low murder clearance rates get attention, the property crime picture is even bleaker. With clearance rates of 12–18%, the vast majority of property crimes are never investigated at all:

• Burglary (~14% clearance): Most burglaries receive a report number and nothing else. Unless there is video evidence or a serial pattern, investigation is rare.
• Larceny-theft (~18%): Shoplifting, package theft, and petty theft are essentially risk-free crimes in most jurisdictions.
• Motor vehicle theft (~12%): Despite the surge in car theft, recovery rates are moderate (~60%) but arrest rates are abysmal. Most stolen cars are recovered abandoned; the thief is rarely identified.

This matters beyond the individual victim. When people learn that reporting crime is futile — that nothing will happen — they stop reporting. This creates a spiral of underreporting that makes official crime statistics increasingly disconnected from reality.

The Rape Clearance Crisis

Sexual assault clearance rates deserve special attention. At approximately 30%, the rape clearance rate is the lowest of any violent crime except robbery. But the true picture is worse:

• Only about 25% of rapes are reported to police in the first place (NCVS data)
• Of those reported, ~30% are cleared
• Of those cleared, not all result in conviction
• Net result: an estimated 5–7% of rapes result in any criminal conviction

Rape kit backlogs remain a persistent problem. As of recent audits, hundreds of thousands of rape kits sit untested in police evidence rooms. When jurisdictions have committed to testing backlogs (e.g., Detroit's initiative testing 11,000+ kits), they consistently identify serial offenders — rapists who went on to commit additional assaults while their first victim's evidence sat untouched.

What "Exceptionally Cleared" Hides

The "exceptional clearance" category deserves scrutiny. Some departments have been found to abuse this classification to inflate their numbers:

• Classifying cases as "exceptionally cleared" when the suspect died, even if the identification was uncertain
• Clearing cases when the victim refused to cooperate — which can mean the victim was intimidated or felt the case was hopeless
• Clearing cold cases based on DNA matches to deceased individuals without thorough investigation

ProPublica and other investigative outlets have found significant irregularities in how some departments classify clearances. The Murder Accountability Project has documented that some cities' clearance rates include a high proportion of exceptional clearances, which inflates the apparent solve rate.

The Arrest Efficiency Connection

Our arrest efficiency analysis examines the ratio of arrests to reported crimes. For violent crime, the picture aligns with clearance data: roughly one arrest for every two violent crimes. But this analysis also reveals that while arrests for drug offenses remain high (police actively seek these out), arrests for property crime are remarkably low relative to the volume of offenses.

This suggests a fundamental resource allocation question: Are police departments spending too much time on drug enforcement and not enough on investigating crimes with actual victims?

Improving Clearance Rates: What Works

Some jurisdictions have successfully improved clearance rates through specific strategies:

1. Rapid response: Departments that assign homicide detectives within the first hour have significantly higher clearance rates. The first 48 hours are critical.
2. Witness protection: Formal and informal witness protection programs increase cooperation. The cost is a fraction of the cost of unsolved murders.
3. Technology: ShotSpotter/gunshot detection, real-time camera networks, and improved forensic tools help — but are no substitute for human detective work.
4. Community trust: Departments that invest in community policing, reduce use-of-force incidents, and practice procedural justice see better cooperation rates.
5. Caseload management: Keeping detective caseloads at recommended levels (4-6 active cases) is the single most impactful staffing decision.
6. Cold case units: Dedicated units can solve cases that were initially unworkable, especially with new DNA technology.

The Bottom Line

The crime data on this site — violent crime rates, city rankings, most dangerous cities — shows how much crime occurs. Clearance rates show how much crime is actually addressed. The gap is enormous.

When half of murders, 70% of rapes, and 85% of property crimes go unsolved, the criminal justice system is not functioning as most Americans assume. This has profound implications for deterrence, community trust, and the legitimacy of the entire system. Improving clearance rates — not just arrest numbers — should be a central metric for police accountability.

Related Pages

• Arrest Efficiency — How Effective Is Policing?
• Most Dangerous Cities in America
• City Crime Rankings
• Violent Crime Statistics 2024
• Homicide in America
• Did "Defund the Police" Cause a Crime Surge?