Did "Defund the Police" Cause a Crime Surge? What the Data Shows

After the 2020 protests, "defund the police" became the most polarizing phrase in criminal justice. Some cities cut police budgets. Crime spiked. But did one cause the other?

What Actually Happened to Police Budgets

Despite the rhetoric, most cities did not meaningfully cut police budgets. A few notable exceptions:

• Austin, TX: Cut $150M (roughly one-third) from APD in 2020. Reversed most cuts by 2022.
• Minneapolis, MN: Proposed replacing the police department. Voters rejected it in 2021. Budget was ultimately increased.
• Los Angeles, CA: Cut $150M from LAPD in 2020. Restored and increased funding by 2022.
• New York City: Shifted $1B from NYPD. Most were accounting changes (moving school safety to education department), not actual service reductions.
• Portland, OR: Cut $15M and disbanded gun violence reduction team. Saw significant violent crime increases.

The pattern: initial cuts, often modest, followed by rapid reversal as crime rose and public sentiment shifted. By 2023, most major cities were spending more on police than before 2020.

The 2020-2021 Crime Spike

Violent crime did increase sharply in 2020, with homicides rising roughly 30% — the largest single-year increase on record. But the timeline complicates the narrative:

• The murder increase began in late May/June 2020 — contemporaneous with protests but also with COVID lockdowns, economic disruption, and social upheaval
• Cities that did not cut police budgets saw similar crime increases to those that did
• Crime increased in rural areas and small towns that had no "defund" movement at all
• Other countries experienced similar crime spikes during COVID, without any defund movement

The Staffing Crisis

What did change dramatically was police staffing. Departments nationwide faced:

• Recruitment collapse: Applications to police academies dropped 50-70% in many cities
• Retention crisis: Officers retired early or transferred to suburban departments at unprecedented rates
• Morale decline: Surveys showed record-low morale and record-high rates of officers discouraging their children from entering policing

This staffing crisis is arguably more significant than budget changes. Even cities that increased police budgets couldn't fill positions. Many departments are still operating 15-25% below authorized strength as of 2024.

What the Research Says

Academic research on the 2020 crime spike has identified multiple contributing factors:

• COVID disruption: Closed courts, released prisoners, reduced social services, economic stress
• Gun purchases: Record-breaking firearm sales in 2020 (21M background checks) put more guns in circulation
• De-policing: Officers reduced proactive enforcement (traffic stops, field interviews) even without budget cuts — the "Ferguson effect" at scale
• Social upheaval: Loss of community structure, school closures, mental health crisis

Timeline: The Rise and Fall of "Defund the Police"

City-by-City Analysis: What Actually Happened

Minneapolis: The Epicenter

Minneapolis became the symbol of defund efforts after city council members' dramatic June 2020 pledge to "dismantle" the police department. But the reality was more complex:

Crime Impact: Minneapolis saw homicides rise from 48 in 2019 to 97 in 2021, then fall to 80 in 2022 and 66 in 2023. The increase began immediately after Floyd's death but preceded any actual budget changes. The recent decline coincides with renewed focus on violence reduction, not defunding.

Austin: The Biggest Actual Cut

Austin made the most substantial cuts to police funding, slashing $150 million from the Austin Police Department budget in 2020.

What the cuts included: Austin moved some functions out of APD (mental health response, some forensics, victim services) to other departments. This represented real service reduction, not just accounting moves.

The reversal: After homicides nearly doubled, Austin voters elected a pro-police mayor and city council in 2022. The city not only restored the cuts but increased police funding 18% above pre-defund levels by 2024.

Portland: Gun Violence Team Disbanded

Portland's approach was more targeted but equally controversial: disbanding the Gun Violence Reduction Team (GVRT) and cutting $15M from the police budget.

Results: Portland saw a dramatic increase in gun violence. Homicides rose from 36 in 2019 to 96 in 2022. While correlation doesn't prove causation, the timing coincided with elimination of the specialized unit focused on gun violence. The city reconstituted a gun violence team in 2022.

Los Angeles: Accounting Maneuvers

LA's "$150M cut" was largely symbolic — mostly moving existing programs to other departments rather than eliminating services:

New York: The Billion Dollar Shuffle

NYC's "$1 billion cut" was the most misleading of all major cities. Analysis shows:

• $500M: Moving school safety officers from NYPD to Department of Education
• $300M: Canceling a new police class (positions never filled anyway due to hiring freezes)
• $200M: Moving homeless outreach and some social programs to other departments

The result: NYC maintained roughly 36,000 uniformed officers (down slightly from pre-pandemic levels but due to retirements, not budget cuts). Crime initially spiked in 2020-2021 but has since returned to near-historic lows.

Comparative Analysis: Cut vs. No-Cut Cities

To test whether budget cuts caused crime increases, we can compare cities that cut police budgets to similar cities that didn't:

The Political Reversal

By 2022, the political momentum had completely shifted. Key developments:

Electoral Backlash

Budget Restorations

By 2023, most cities had not only restored police budgets but increased them above 2020 levels:

Lessons Learned

The defund experiment, brief as it was, generated important lessons for police reform:

What Worked

• Mental health response teams: Cities that added social workers to respond to mental health crises saw positive results
• Violence interruption: Community-based programs to mediate conflicts showed promise in several cities
• Accountability measures: Enhanced oversight and transparency improved police-community relations
• Youth programs: Summer jobs and mentorship programs correlated with reduced youth violence

What Didn't Work

• Eliminating specialized units: Disbanding gun violence teams in Portland and other cities coincided with violence increases
• Rapid implementation: Cities that made quick, dramatic changes struggled more than those with gradual transitions
• Lack of alternatives: Cutting police without ready replacement services created service gaps
• Political sustainability: Policies without broad public support faced quick reversals

The Recovery

By 2023-2024, violent crime dropped back to near pre-2020 levels. Homicides fell roughly 12-15% in 2023 and continued declining in 2024. This happened despite police staffing levels remaining well below pre-2020 levels in most cities — complicating simple "more police = less crime" narratives as well.

Key Takeaways

The Future of Police Reform

The defund movement may have been politically short-lived, but it accelerated important conversations about police reform. Many cities are now pursuing what advocates call "smart justice" approaches:

• Hybrid models: Combining police with social workers, mental health professionals
• Accountability measures: Body cameras, civilian oversight, data transparency
• Community investment: Addressing root causes while maintaining public safety
• Evidence-based policing: Using data to deploy resources where they're most effective

The lesson from 2020-2024 appears to be that effective public safety requires both adequate police resources AND investments in the social infrastructure that prevents crime. Cities that maintained police capacity while also expanding mental health services, youth programs, and violence intervention have generally seen the best outcomes.